For me, the beginning of 2011 does not just mean that I’m six months away from graduating and that I will be attending college this year (hopefully). On the lighter side, it also means that the cross-country race that is the Academy Awards is at its apex and is close, but not quite, to the finish line. This year is more exciting than in years past, when Slumdog Millionaire and No Country for Old Men had it all sewn up relatively early.

I will try and predict who the nominees will be, who among the potential nominees are the biggest contenders, and what factors are in play that could affect the final decision. And without further ado…here we go.

Best Picture: The current frontrunner is The Social Network, the Facebook drama that has won nearly every critic’s group award for best picture. The Social Network has had one of the best Oscar campaigns ever, with great ads boasting about the aforementioned critics’ awards won and an upcoming Blu Ray and DVD release with the cover lavishing such praise from critics as “An American Landmark” or “A once-in-a-generation movie.” However, critics do not vote for Oscars, and it is unsure whether the voting members of the Academy has the same level of admiration.

The King’s Speech is another possibility. It has great acting, solid filmmaking and the true-life story of a King with a debilitating stutter.

The Fighter is yet another choice, the true-life story of boxer Mickey Ward. It tells the classic tale of the down-on-his luck boxer who prevails against great odds, but it is given a refreshing spin with great acting and superb directing.

The true dark horse in all of this is Black Swan, the crazy story of a ballerina haunted by her own self-doubts at whether she can properly pull off both the characters of the White and Black swan in the classic ballet tale, Swan Lake. It is most likely too oddball and disturbing to win, but it is a favorite among many and the impressive box office it has raked in can only help.

Best Actor: This is basically a done deal, as Colin Firth in The King’s Speech will come off the momentum off his first nomination the previous year (for A Single Man) and win this award handily. Oscar voters love to give the award to those who have never won it before, and Firth is certainly deserving. The only possibly foil could be Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network, but that would be a bigger upset than when Adrian Brody beat Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis and won for The Pianist. Firth should get his acceptance speech ready.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman for Black Swan and Annette Bening for The Kids are All Right are the two big ones here, as both respectively won Best Actress awards at the Golden Globes in the Drama and Comedy/Musical categories. It’s either a win for Portman, who audiences have seen since she was a little kid smoking a cigarette in The Professional, or the older Bening who has  been nominated twice before but lost both times to Hilary Swank. Thankfully for Bening, Swank has a chance to be nominated but zero chance of winning for her film, Conviction.

Not as fortunately is that Portman currently has the edge over her, as she (in my opinion) had the far better performance in a film that people are still buzzing about. The Kids Are All Right did very well for an indie film, but that was last summer, a long time ago in Oscar World. Portman is riding a lot of buzz and this year will appear in six films.

This could be her undoing however, as No Strings Attached, a raunchy romantic comedy starring Ashton Kutcher as her love interest, looks pretty awful. The possibility of this film being her Norbit cannot be ignored, but in the end I believe this does not matter. (I am referring to the 2007 Eddie Murphy film Norbit, a film that has been largely speculated as the reason why he did not win an Oscar for Dreamgirls. Norbit is a caricature of the lazy comedy exhibited in “typical” Murphy films, where he plays all the parts and flatulence is involved. It reminded voters of how bad and uninspiring Murphy movies can be.)  In Portman’s case, this should not be a concern. This is the first formulaic romantic comedy she has done, and as bad as it looks, it is not a reminder to those that she makes films like this all the time. Portman is the favorite, but Bening could get the sympathy vote after her two previous losses.

Best Director: This is David Fincher’s award to lose. Fincher winning could almost be viewed as a Lifetime Achievement award for films that have found followings after the fact such as Fight Club or Zodiac. However, that would be unfair to his great work with The Social Network; with the fast cuts and swift scenes, the film fit in a lot of dialogue and complex ideas in a narrow time without feeling overstuffed.

These are the top awards in a nutshell. Next up, I will look at the Supporting Actor and Actresses possibilities, and the Adapted and Original Screenplay Categories.